Por: Analisis Crìtico
Tomado de Time Out
El calentamiento global puede ser difícil de visualizar correctamente.
Si no está directamente amenazado por el aumento del nivel del mar, sufriendo escasez de agua o devastado por incendios forestales, ¿cómo sabe que realmente está sucediendo? Todo puede parecer un poco abstracto.
Es por eso que proyectos como Climate Central son tan esenciales. Este sitio web crea mapas que muestran qué partes del mundo podrían encontrarse bajo el agua debido al aumento del nivel del mar. Entonces, a medida que el planeta se calienta y la contaminación continúa sin cesar, ¿qué ciudades de todo el mundo podrían encontrarse bajo el agua en 2030? Para averiguarlo, analizamos los mapas más recientes de Climate Central, que se basan en el informe del IPCC de 2021; en otras palabras, algunos de los datos sobre cambio climático más confiables que existen.
Por supuesto, hay muchas variables en juego, pero lo que estamos viendo aquí es lo que podría suceder si la contaminación continúa en su trayectoria actual. Estos mapas muestran los niveles del mar en el futuro (en rojo), pero no muestran lo que podría suceder durante las inundaciones u otros eventos climáticos extremos.
Mucho puede cambiar entre ahora y 2030. Podríamos construir defensas contra inundaciones, adaptar nuestras ciudades e, idealmente, si las conversaciones de la COP26 van según lo planeado, tomar medidas drásticas para detener el calentamiento global. Pero si nada de eso sucede, aquí están las posibles consecuencias: nueve ciudades que podrían encontrarse completamente (o en gran parte) bajo el agua en una década.
Cities that could be underwater by 2030
1. Amsterdam, the Netherlands
There’s a reason they’re called the Low Countries. Amsterdam and the cities of Rotterdam and the Hague sit low, flat and close to the North Sea. The Dutch are famed for their flood defences, and looking at these sea-level projections, it seems the country’s system of dikes, dams, barriers, levees and floodgates will become even more essential in the years to come.
2. Basra, Iraq
Iraq’s main port city of Basra lies on the Shatt al-Arab, an enormous and wide river that feeds into the Persian Gulf. Due to its intricate network of canals and streams, as well as neighbouring marshland, Basra and its surrounding areas are especially vulnerable to a rise in sea levels. And as if that wasn’t worrying enough, Basra already suffers significantly from waterborne diseases – so increased flooding carries even more significant threats.
3. New Orleans, USA
See those sharp, thick grey borders on the above map around the centre of New Orleans? That’s the city’s system of levees that protects it from the swarm of red building up from Lake Maurepas in the north and from Lake Salvador and Little Lake in the south. Without those defences, New Orleans would be severely threatened by rising sea levels, but even with them, the damage looks catastrophic. The Biloxi and Jean Lafitte wildlife preserves look particularly vulnerable – on the map both appear almost totally submerged.
4. Venice, Italy
In the very near future, Venice faces a twin threat: sea levels are rising and the city itself is sinking – by two millimetres every year. The Venetian capital has already been hit by servere flooding, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency of high tides that submerge it. Like New Orleans, Venice has a system of flood-defence systems in place, but as the crisis worsens, these will be more difficult (and expensive) to maintain.
5. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Climate Central’s map shows that the areas most at risk in Ho Chi Minh City are its eastern districts – particularly the flat, heavily built-up marshland of Thủ Thiêm. But it also looks like the city will be increasingly threatened along the Mekong Delta. While the centre of Ho Chi Minh City itself is unlikely to find itself underwater by 2030, it will almost certainly be more vulnerable to flooding and tropical storms.
7. Bangkok, Thailand
A 2020 study found that Bangkok could be the city that’s worst hit by global warming in the short term. The Thai capital sits just 1.5 metres above sea level and, like Venice, it’s sinking (only much, much faster – by about two to three centimetres a year). But Bangkok is also built on very dense clay soil, which makes it even more prone to flooding. By 2030, most of the coastal Tha Kham and Samut Prakan areas could be underwater, as could its main airport, Suvarnabhumi International.
8. Georgetown, Guyana
For centuries, Guyana’s capital Georgetown has relied on sea walls – or, more accurately, one gigantic, 280-mile long sea wall – for protection from storms. That’s because most of the coastline is between 0.5 and one metre below high tide. Some 90 percent of Guyana’s population lives on the coast, and as you can see, the country will need to substantially bolster its sea wall if Georgetown’s central areas are to avoid massive damage
9. Savannah, USA
The city of Savannah, Georgia sits in a hurricane hotspot, but even without extreme weather events, the historic city could see land swallowed up by the sea on all sides. The Savannah River in the north and Ogeechee River in the south could both spill out into the nearby marshland, meaning that when hurricanes and flash floods do hit the city (and by 2050 the city is predicted to experience once-per-century historical flood levels every year), the effects may be even more severe.
